There is a predicated shortfall in the amount of food waste available to sufficiently run the amount of Anaerobic Digestion (AD) facilities currently in operation, according to a report released by Eunomia Research & Consulting.

Moreover, Eunomia suggests that the AD market has reached a ‘tipping point’ beyond which there is not currently sufficient feedstock being collected (from the food processing/manufacturing, household and commercial sectors) to support operation of new AD facilities, designed to treat food waste, coming to market.

The report, ‘Anaerobic Digestion Market Update: Addressing the Feedstock Famine’, which was published yesterday (30 June) ahead of the annual Anaerobic Digestion and Biogas (ADBA) conference, offers immediate and medium term measures to further ‘unlock’ food waste from different sectors.

Adam Baddeley, the report’s lead author commented: “The report is underpinned by modelling which broadly quantifies the levels of source separated food waste, which is ‘actually available’ across key sectors which generate food wastes. AD capacity designed to treat food waste is developing at a faster pace than food waste feedstock is being ‘unlocked’ for separate collection. Market development and regulatory intervention is urgently needed to maintain growth in the sector and to ensure food waste is treated in line with the waste hierarchy.”

Report findings

The report suggests that some operators and developers are struggling to access sufficient feedstock to support either new plant development or ongoing operation. Without any change in the market or regulatory environment to stimulate separate collection of household or commercial wastes, there may be consolidation within the sector in the near future.

Eunomia’s figures imply that the tonnage of food waste which is actually available from the food processing and manufacturing sector for AD facilities will decrease from 1.8 million tonnes in 2013/14 to 1.6 million tonnes in 2023/24.

This projected decrease in available food waste is largely due to the impact of increasing efficiencies in food processing and manufacturing, along with the effect of food waste prevention initiatives.

Eunomia assumes, based on its experience of working with both a range of major waste collection contractors and AD operators, that only around 10 per cent of commercial food waste was collected in 2013/14, and that without any change in regulation, this might only rise slowly to 15 per cent by 2023/24.11 This is almost exclusively due to the very low levels of collection service provision in this sector.

Forecasted capacity gap

Eunomia’s research suggests that currently, 2.8 million tonnes of AD capacity is designed to treat food wastes from food processing and manufacturing, households and commercial enterprises. This capacity is projected to increase to 3.5 million tonnes in 2016/17, beyond which little to no change will occur.

The capacity forecast suggests that there is already an excess of supply of AD capacity (over and above available food waste) of around 100,000 tonnes, and that this may increase to excess supply of 800,000 tonnes in 2016/17, before falling back to 200,000 tonnes by 2023/24, as captures of food waste grow, but capacity (under certain assumptions) remains static.

The report states: ‘This shows that the market has recently reached a ‘tipping point’, beyond which there is not currently sufficient feedstock being collected to support operation of new facilities coming to market… Without any change in the market, we might expect competition for feedstock to be relatively fierce (with local / regional variation in this), and perhaps, some consolidation in the sector in the medium term.’

Suggestions to unlock more food waste

Given the projected increase in AD capacity and a desire from the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for more generation of energy from AD, alongside discussions regarding a possible 70 per cent recycling target for municipal waste (by 2030) being proposed by the European Commission, it is becoming increasingly important to consider methods by which food waste can be further unlocked from both the commercial and household sectors.

The report suggests measures that different sectors could take:

In the immediate term the report suggests the following market-driven, commercial approaches to delivering greater capture rates:

• A move towards weight-based pricing mechanisms, which can be an attractive proposition for contractors, which can offer both residual and food waste collections; and
• Procurement of food (and other) waste collection services via collaborative methods, whereby businesses join together to reduce the costs of the service.

In the short and medium-term, it proposes the following regulatory measures, as a means to maintaining an upward trend in food waste captures to support growth in the AD sector:

• Tighter adherence to, and enforcement of the waste hierarchy by the EA, as the authority tasked with ensuring compliance with related guidance published by Defra;
• The introduction of a requirement in England (and Wales) upon businesses to sort food waste at source, as has been introduced in Scotland; and
• The introduction of a requirement for local authorities to provide separate food waste collections to households.

The full report is available here.