Recycling and waste management company FCC Environment has published an assessment of how the UK’s waste agenda might be affected by changes in the UK’s political landscape over the next five years.

Commissioned following ‘uncertainty surrounding the waste and resource management industry, particularly Defra’s step back from the sector’, ‘Mapping the politics of waste’, deconstructs the waste agenda of the current coalition government, and examines the manifestos of each of the main political parties with the aim of predicting how the UK’s attitude to waste might shift following next year’s general election. The report also considers the possible outcomes of a more devolved Scotland, as well as exploring the hypothetical impact of a majority vote to leave the EU.

The report suggests that Conservative leadership would likely lead to spending cuts for local authorities, which would affect waste collection and disincentivise recycling, whilst a Labour-led government would attempt to make waste an integral part of its plan economic growth.

Reflecting on the last few years

FCC states that developments in waste policy and strategy have been inconsistent across the UK over the last few years, with England lagging behind Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The report goes on to claim that development has ‘pretty much stalled’ in England since the current coalition government was formed in 2010: the Government’s Waste Review (2011) set no new targets for the country; mandatory recycling targets for English councils have been scrapped; and Landfill Tax escalations have been halted beyond 2014 (discounting rises in RPI).

This account is contrasted with the rest of the UK – as Scotland and Wales, FCC states, have published ‘clear policy roadmaps’ and have ‘a legislative backbone and a long-term vision for maximizing waste as a resource’, whilst Northern Ireland has placed ‘renewed emphasis on resource efficiency’, supported by “’tougher legislated measures’.

Recycling Targets

According to the report, there is ‘resistance’ under the current government, and ‘little support’ within the industry, to bring England in line with the rest of the UK regarding cross-sector recycling targets.

However, it is predicted that this could well change if the Labour Party comes in to power, noting that its 2013 waste policy document indicated that it would review how recycling targets could be realigned to drive up performance. It predicts that the Green Party would likely do the same, as senior members of the party have noted that the UK needs to push recycling targets ‘in a more consistent way’.

It is said that the Liberal Democrats ‘remain neutral’ on the matter – however, the report points out that the Green Liberal Democrats recently endorsed a manifesto put forward by a group of party activists, the Liberal Sustainability Network, which called for strict business waste targets regarding resource efficiency and packaging.

Opposition to higher targets comes from the Conservatives and the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the report suggests. UKIP are alleged to be “anti-bureaucracy”, and therefore determined to scrap waste management regulations, with a recent manifesto pledging to reduce (and possibly abolish) the Landfill Tax. This, the report suggests, would decrease the viability of recycling and make targets redundant. (However, it suggested that the Liberal Democrats would likely seek to maintain these taxes, whilst Labour would look to provide incentives within the private sector in order to encourage recycling rates. Meanwhile, the Green European manifesto calls for zero waste to landfill and targets to eliminate hazardous waste production, but does not include details on landfill bans.)

FCC also predicts that the Conservatives would be reluctant to stretch recycling targets, however it notes that an ‘influential group of Tory modernisers’, the 2020 Conservative Group, are putting pressure on their party to impose landfill bans on recyclable materials and introduce incentives and rebates to encourage household recycling.

The report points out that no specific reference to recycling targets were made by major parties during party conference season this autumn, concluding that the topic is ‘not a priority issue for the time being’, However, it states that industry members are ‘desperate’ for long-term certainty regarding Landfill Tax escalations.

Scottish devolution

Regarding the possible implications of further devolution of power in Scotland, FCC predicts that ‘Scottish waste policy is unlikely to deviate from its current direction of travel’. However, it suggests that the Scottish Government could well request full control of its energy policy, as some environmental lobbying groups are reportedly calling for. The report suggests that ‘waste investment could potentially be scaled back' as a result, but also questions whether such powers, coupled with increased control over Scottish tax policy, might allow them to push forward with further waste reforms, such as higher landfill taxes.

EU-exit ramifications

The report also considers the ‘daunting prospect’ of the UK voting to leave the EU and the implications this would have on the UK’s waste agenda. It presents two possible outcomes. The ‘less extreme’ scenario is one in which the UK remains part of the European Economic Area, and therefore remains bound to the waste-related directives that have already been incorporated into UK law. In this case it is predicted that there would be ‘few changes in the short-term’. The alternative scenario, in which the UK withdraws completely, is predicted to lead to ‘a period of policy uncertainty, which would have significant implications for infrastructure investment’. The report states that this could lead to stunted innovation, stagnant recycling rates and slashed local waste budgets, which could in turn hinder the UK’s progression towards a circular economy.

‘Industry needs consistency regarding legislative and economic drivers’

Paul Taylor, FCC Environment’s CEO, commented: “Whatever the result of the 2015 general election, the industry needs consistency regarding legislative and economic drivers to encourage investment in infrastructure and market growth. It’s the responsibility of the waste management and resource sector to work with the existing framework of regulations to drive up recycling and energy recovery rates. However, too much regulation of the industry will stifle competition and damage the long-term viability of the sector.”

Read ‘Mapping the politics of waste’.