A senior research fellow at Chatham House, Paul Stevens, last night (7 March) held a lecture discussing the controversial issue of shale gas drilling (fracking), during which he suggested that a ‘shale gas revolution’ was unlikely to occur ‘any time soon, especially in Europe’.

‘Hydrocarbons and Depletion: Shale gas technology to the rescue?’ was this year’s Clerk Maxwell Lecture held by the Institution of Engineering and Technology at Savoy Place, London.

During the lecture, Stevens delved into the environmental and economic issues surrounding the fracking industry, particularly with regard to its operation in the US and transposition to Europe.

Environmental Impact

According to Stevens, the process of fracking not only requires a greater deal of energy than ‘conventional’ gas, but is also worse for the environment as it releases more Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and, potentially, radioactive materials.

He said: “Fracking requires quite a lot of energy – you’re injecting water at high pressure. …[and] the water that comes back up may have elements of radioactivity in there [that] needs to be managed”.

However, what Stevens considered ‘the key to the debate’ was the ‘unknown quantity of fugitive emissions of methane’. He said: “Methane is an extremely potent greenhouse gas, far more so than CO2 and there is concern that shale gas operations are leading to a lot of methane leakages.

“Some of the early studies that were done on this assumed a level of fugitive emissions which frankly, if they’d been accurate, would have made most shale gas operations completely uneconomic because most of the gas is just going up into the atmosphere.”

‘Shale gas revolution’ unlikely for Europe

Calling the ‘shale gas revolution’ in the US “one of the most spectacular events in the history of energy in the last 50 years” (according to Stevens, by the 2030s, “more than 50 per cent of US domestic gas production will come from shale”) the likelihood of a similar ‘revolution’ unfolding in Europe is ‘unlikely’ to happen ‘any time soon’.

Stevens argued that this is for a number of reasons including the fact that Europe is geographically distinct from the US and possesses high clay content shale that is less suitable for hydraulic fracturing (as it isn’t brittle), and the fact that Europe possesses ‘limited drill core data’ compared to the US, which makes it far more difficult to locate ‘sweet spots’ for fracking. These problems are compounded by the ‘unwillingness’ of European governments to fund ‘basic scientific research’.

This funding, Stevens argued, was vital to the growth of the ‘shale gas revolution’ in the US at a time when the US Government foresaw a decline in domestic gas production.

Furthermore, Stevens contended that there are a long list of hurdles in place in Europe unfavourable to a revolution, including: ‘strict environmental regulations’, ‘zero tax breaks and subsidies’, ‘direct access to pipeline’ and ‘lack of service industry capability’, in addition to the fact that Europe is more densely populated that the US.

Ultimately, Stevens’ findings led him to conclude that Europe will not see a shale gas revolution in the next 10-15 years and that George Osbourne’s ‘dash for gas’ was ‘seriously flawed’ as a result.

Shale gas under Wales

Steven’s lecture was delivered amid news that members of the Welsh Assembly have been told by a US consultant based in Dallas, Texas, that 50 trillion cubic feet of shale gas is lying under South Wales.

According to reports, at current levels of gas usage (3.5 trillion cubic feet per year) this would be enough to power Britain for the next 16 years.

Speaking to Wales Online, Director of Coastal Oil and Gas Ltd, Gerwyn Williams, said: “We now know that through similar methods America has a 100-year gas supply; there is no reason why we cannot be in the same position. There is a big prize for everyone in Wales if this works.”

UK fracking controversy

However, there remains a great deal of opposition to fracking in the UK. Earlier this week, Greenpeace erected mock drilling rigs on a green outside George Osbourne’s constituency office in Tatton, Cheshire.

The protest company, named Frack & Go, aimed to show Osbourne’s constituents (and the UK) what his ‘fracking nightmare looks like’.

A Greenpeace spokesperson said: “On the village green we’re setting up a fracking operation, a giant fracking drill rig, a site office and teams of surveyors looking for the best place to sink those drills.

“But this is more than just showing the people of Tatton and the UK what Osbourne’s fracking nightmare looks like, this is about the whole ‘dash for gas’. We know that our government’s own independent climate change committee says Osbourne’s gas scenario should be our ‘Plan Z’ when it comes to solving our energy crisis.”

According to a poll conducted by ComRes more than half of Tatton’s population of 500 said they opposed fracking in the area.

Read more about gas and oil exploration in the UK and read more about the future of fracking in the UK in Resource 71.