The results of a research review at Cranfield University suggest that the impact of climate change on crop yield could be much worse than previously predicted.

The review focused on existing research into the effects of climate change on crop production in Africa and South Asia. Although dependent on agriculture for their economies, these are amongst the world’s most food-insecure regions.

Cranfield’s Dr Jerry Knox led the research, alongside scientists at the University of Reading and Professor Tim Wheeler, Deputy Chief Scientist at the Department for International Development (DFID). The review identified discrepancies and variations in existing evidence, demonstrating that the potential impact of climate change on crop production has been underestimated in previous research.

The review examined eight major crops, which account for 80 per cent of total crop production in the regions: maize, rice, wheat, sorghum, millet, cassava, yam and sugarcane. According to the researchers, the review provides policymakers with a robust assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on crop yield, which will aid in developing appropriate strategies for climate adaptation.

Dr Knox commented: “Given global concern over the vulnerability of certain crops in some regions of Africa and South Asia, an evidence-based approach to policy is essential to ensure the right decisions by food production policy makers positively affect the right people.”

Limited access to farming technology within rural communities of Africa and South Asia will undoubtedly affect their ability to adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. Some changes to help protect the livelihood of these communities will have to be developed, for example modifying crop rotations, trying different crop variants and altering planting dates.

There are other options, which the researchers claim would be more effective, that are also much more expensive options for adapting to climate change. These include developing new crop varieties and investing in new technologies, for example the expansion of irrigation infrastructure.

This review is intended to help policy makers create suitable strategies for climate change adaptation, taking into consideration the farming communities that it will threaten the most.

Dr Knox insisted that “we need to ensure as much evidence as possible is gathered on the impact of climate change before making decisions on how to move forward”.

The full report is published in in the Institute of Physics (IOP) academic journal Environmental Research Letters (ERL).