Forget income tax, education reform or the state of the NHS – if you want to strike fear into the heart of a politician, just mention climate change.

Governments and scientists are now beginning to realise that global warming represents one of the major challenges to economy and society that the world has ever seen, with transport systems proving particularly problematic as a result of our continued dependence on fossil fuels.

In the UK, we now have 724,000 kilometres of road lanes, 16,600 kilometres of railway track, 47 major ports and 28 major airports, with around £8 billion spent on maintaining them every year. However, this infrastructure is now struggling to cope with the rising demands being placed on it. The need to find alternative, more efficient ways of managing transport has never been greater, and it is here that a new report by the government’s science think tank, Foresight, has a big contribution to make.

Foresight’s impressively named Intelligent Infrastructure Futures project brought together a group of 300 UK and international experts to look into the future in order to explore the potential for creating sustainable transport in the UK. The resulting report highlights four future scenarios, which are designed to describe how our transport systems could look in 50 years time. The scenarios cover every possibility; from a futuristic outlook in which we could issue instructions to our cars or use our mobile phones to summon the bus, to a worst-case scenario where we face an economic catastrophe as a result of our failure to develop new fuels or take advantage of the opportunities offered by ‘intelligent’ infrastructure.

For the uninitiated, intelligent infrastructure is not about sinister surveillance systems. Instead, it simply involves using the latest science and technology – such as sensor networks and data tagging – to design systems that are aware of their environment and which can respond to changes accordingly. In relation to transport,such intelligence could benefit passengers and the environment by ensuring that our infrastructure operates in an efficient, coordinated way.

To develop the scenarios, Foresight’s scientists chose to focus on two questions which they claim will prove crucial in determining the direction that our future transport systems will take: Firstly, will we be able to develop alternative forms of fuel – such as hydrogen powered cars – that will enable us to create low impact transport systems? Such developments could prove vital because, if we are able to use greener fuels, we could continue to travel widely without damaging the environment. By contrast, a continued dependence on fossil fuels would mean that future technologies – such as improved virtual communications networks – would have to be used to reduce our need for movement.

Secondly, the experts considered whether the public would accept the development of intelligent infrastructure. For example, data tagging techniques could, in theory, be used to track the movements of goods and people in order to help transport systems become more coordinated and efficient. However, unless people are confident about the ways in which such data is being handled and used, they may be resistant to the idea of being ‘tracked’ in this way.

The four scenarios developed are the experts’ responses to these two uncertainties. For example, if public acceptance of intelligent technologies was combined with the successful development of greener fuels, we could experience a scenario which is described by the report as ‘perpetual motion’. Under such conditions, the continued movement of people, information and ideas would drive our economy and society. Demand for travel would remain high and our roads would still be busy but, thanks to the development of alternative fuels and high-tech cars, the environmental and social impacts of increasing road use would be much reduced.

The perpetual motion scenario would also see people making the most of the opportunities offered by virtual communications technologies. As such, advances in telepresencing could reduce the need for business journeys, while new high-speed rail travel systems would make essential travel quicker and more efficient.

At the opposite extreme is the ‘tribal trading’ scenario, which was developed by Foresight’s experts to describe a society that has rejected the use of intelligent technologies and which has failed to develop greener fuels. This bleak scenario sees the world wracked by a series of savage energy shocks, resulting in severe damage to the economy. Here, long distance travel is a luxury that few can afford, with most people having to travel by bicycle or horse within their own localities. Although the local production of goods and services would increase in response to such difficulties, Foresight’s experts emphasise that life would be hard for most people, with lawlessness and conflicts over resources becoming commonplace.

The two remaining scenarios lie between these two extremes. The ‘good intentions’ scenario results from a society which has accepted intelligent technology, but which has been unable to develop alternative fuels. The ‘urban colonies’ scenario, meanwhile, explains what would happen if we were to develop alternative fuels, but reject intelligent technology.

Thought-provoking as these ideas are, the report emphasises that, in reality, the world is unlikely to resemble any of the scenarios described, with future developments potentially involving a mix of all four. However, as Sir David King, the government’s Chief Scientific Advisor, describes, the scenarios are valuable precisely because they stimulate debate about the kind of worlds that could develop. “The technologies of today and the near future offer us solutions as to how we might develop a society that can deliver economic growth, support social cohesion and be environmentally sustainable,” he says.

“Transport is a growing contributor to greenhouse gases. As developing countries follow our lead on transport, it is essential that we find solutions that minimise carbon dioxide emissions. Building intelligence into the infrastructure to deliver efficiency and reduce the need for movement will be key to that goal.”

Examples from the report clearly illustrate the ways in which such intelligence could be used to improve the efficiency of the transport sector. Ironically, many of the solutions suggested would not result in major changes to the physical appearance of the infrastructure because, under the scenarios envisaged in the report, we would still have roads, railways, airports and ports. However, designing intelligence into the system could dramatically change the ways in which we use these services – with different modes of transport becoming increasingly integrated and with some kinds of journeys being replaced altogether.

One possibility involves the use of agentbased software, which, if used effectively, could reduce our need for movement and help us manage our time more efficiently. For example, the report explains that these agents, or ‘avatars’ “could become the modern electronic equivalent of the butler, executive assistant or broker, taking instructions and venturing out into the connected world to perform various tasks on our behalf.

According to the report: “The agent could help us to find the best financial packages, negotiate deals and, importantly, help us to manage our time.”

Such ideas might seem incredibly futuristic but, according to experts, the way we communicate with our computers could also be radically transformed over the next half century. Current research suggests that the ability of computers to understand our speech is fast improving, with experts predicting that in 20-30 years’ time our computers will actually be able to ‘understand’ us, enabling people to speak instructions to their cars, for instance.

However, although the report identifies ways in which technology could help reduce the need for movement, it also recognises that travel is an enjoyable and necessary part of modern life. As a result, it includes additional strategies for making travel safer and more efficient. As Sir David says:“To want to travel is human nature, and to travel intelligently can be sustainable. It is for us to decide how we develop and deliver a sustainable version of the future.”

Indeed, as anyone who has ever flown from a major airport will realise, technological developments are now sophisticated enough to ensure that jumbo jets – some of which carry more than 400 people – can safely land just minutes apart. Trains, however, need greater separation between them because they rely on an outdated system that uses coloured lights to regulate their movement – sometimes with disastrous results.

At present, the cost of updating the rail network in this way would be prohibitive. Then again, the cost of sensor technology is falling all the time, so there is no reason to suspect that such improvements could not take place in the future. Similar technology could even be used to enable cars to communicate with each other, so that safe distances and environmentally efficient flow speeds could be maintained without the need for driver intervention.

Society’s dependence on the car has, of course, been a key issue in debates about transport’s influence on climate change, and Newcastle University’s Professor Phil Blythe, who acted as lead consultant on the Foresight project, is adamant that firm action must be taken. “We have got to do something to tackle fossil fuel energy use. The number of cars in the world is set to double in the next 25 years as the Chinese and Indian economies take off.”

However, he is quick to stress that the report is not simply another attack on motorists. “We are not being anti-car,” he says. “The study is suggesting, however, that we should begin to consider the future issues now, and to explore how putting greater intelligence in the infrastructure can help us to address these significant challenges.”

The ideas developed in the report could enable cars to be used more efficiently and safely, resulting in less congestion and a reduced impact on the environment. In California, for example, intelligent technology has allowed vehicles to travel safely in platoons in specially designated high-speed lanes. Such technology has radical implications for the role of the driver, as cars could be developed to stop people speeding or driving whilst under the influence of alcohol. Existing satellite navigation technology could also be used to charge people for road use to ensure that drivers pay for the full cost of their journeys. Although such ideas have the potential to revolutionise the way in which we travel, predicting what will actually happen is very difficult due to a number of uncertainties – hence the report’s development of four future scenarios, rather than just one or two.

Science and technology are developing so rapidly that it is hard to know what will be possible in five years’ time, let alone what will happen in 50 years. Any developments that do take place will also depend not just on what is technically possible, but on what is economically viable, what transport policies are created, and how the public reacts to the new technologies.

It would, of course, be easy to criticise the Foresight report for failing to provide specific policy recommendations or a failsafe prediction of the future. Yet, on closer inspection, the report’s strength lies in its decision to highlight the uncertainties facing our transport system. The key message to emerge from the project is that the future is not predetermined – an intelligent infrastructure will not magically ‘appear’, and it is, therefore, up to us to decide how we would like our transport systems to develop. This means that government and policy makers must act now to introduce the strategies needed to create their own ideal scenario of the future.

In the words of Sir David King: “Putting a human on the moon was the greatest challenge of the past half century. The transport challenge of the next 50 years will be to use technology to deliver infrastructure that will stimulate economic growth, support social cohesion and be environmentally sustainable.” The future beckons. Now it’s up to us to decide.

Sprucing things up

Spruce Carpets was set up in 2004 by entrepreneur Kate Atkinson while she was volunteering at a local furniture charity. People coming in for furniture were also desperately in need of low-cost flooring and Atkinson realised that no one in Scotland, or anywhere in the UK, provided this service. She applied for funding and in February 2005, Spruce Carpets – the first carpet recycler in the UK – started trading.

Two years on and the community enterprise has gone from strength to strength. The process is straightforward. A team of 10 staff and 10 volunteers collect good condition carpet from homes and receive end-of-line donations from carpet retailers. The carpets are then sorted for quality; damaged edges are trimmed, and the carpet is put through an industrial cleaning process. Once dry, the carpets are packaged up and put out for sale. Prices range from £35 to £80 for a good quality, room-sized carpet.

“Spruce takes a lot of pride in providing a high quality refurb product rather than ‘something that’ll do’. We believe in maintaining people’s dignity,” says Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Izzie Johnston.

“Volunteers wanting to build their confidence and skills carry out this work. We deliver social benefits by aiming our carpets first and foremost at people on low incomes, especially homeless people moving into social housing, but the service is open to anyone. Sales are growing, but it’s down to people who work here. Spruce is not just about a team of 10 employees, but about all the volunteers and trainees as well. The people who work here really believe in what they are doing. There is real commitment from all the staff and volunteers and trainees – it’s great.” As a commitment to this personal development, the organisation is intending to provide formal training in the form of Scottish Vocational Qualifications.

To deliver all these benefits sustainably the organisation needs to make money. Having been founded on funding, new CEO Johnston is keen for the enterprise to move away from grants: “The first year, 2005/06, we were on about 72 per cent grant funding. This financial year it’s about a 37/63 split, and in the next financial year we project it’s going to be well reduced – to about 50 per cent relying on grants. We are working towards being financially self-sustaining. We had great aspirations to do it within two years but the organisation has grown, and that growth has meant employing more staff and that, although a good thing, pushes it back a bit.” And, thanks to a partnership with the Salvation Army and other social enterprises specialising in furniture reuse, it’s developed a highstreet presence. Indeed, last year, it scooped a national award for innovation in recycling at the CRNS Awards. “It was appropriate because we were the first carpet recycler in Scotland and in the UK realistically, so it was good to get that,” says Johnston.

As for the future, things are looking bright. “Spruce Carpet Tiles was a sister organisation set up in March last year, and in November we absorbed the activities of Tiles, which involves taking delivery of carpet tiles, cleaning them up and selling them on, with a fitting service to third sector organisations and charities or anyone who is environmentally minded. It’s going really well and is growing too. We’re finding that we’re attracting lots of different types of organisations, including private organisations that do want a more sustainable product in their buildings.

“We would also like to provide environmental contracts to the carpet industry – at the moment we take in donations for free, but we are in the process of changing this. All commercial organisations have to pay for landfill, so our services would allow them to contribute towards their Corporate Social Responsibility policies.”

With an estimated £70 million-worth of used carpet put into landfill every year in the UK there’s plenty for Spruce to be getting on with.