Two separate reports have been released this week showing that the world is seeing record highs in global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions.

The European Environment Agency (EEA) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) have both published studies into climate change ahead of the annual two-week UN climate conference, which starts on Monday (26 November) in Doha, Qatar.

Today (21 November), the EEA released a report revealing the speed of climate change now taking place in every region of Europe.

Commissioned as part of EEA’s analysis into the full extent of climate change impacts across Europe, the report will inform the European Commission’s European Adaptation Strategy to be published in March 2013.

Underlining the future impact of climate change on the global community, the ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012’ report highlights that the world’s poorest communities will be most affected by climate shifts. The effects of climate change could also deepen existing economic equalities as poorer countries come across many more obstacles in adapting to the environmental consequences of rising temperatures.

According to the EEA, the last decade (2002-2011) was the warmest on record in Europe. The European land temperature was recorded as being 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average, and is estimated to rise a further 2.5-4 degrees by the end of the 21st century.

It suggests that in order to stem any futher damage, effective 'adaptation strategies' need to be developed in order to minimise the risk to nations' infrastructure, homes and businesses. These could include: water efficiency plans, utilising building plans that include extreme weather-proofing and strenghtening (or building new) flood defences.

WMO Report

The temperature increase is due to the rise in heat-trapping greenhouse gases, levels of which reached a record high in 2011, according to the WMO.

Bringing together statistics about levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, how rapidly they have been increasing and the future impact they will have, the WMO outlined in its most recent Greenhouse Gas Bulletin yesterday (20 October), that since the start of the industrial era in 1750, around 350 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been released into the atmosphere, mainly from fossil fuel combustion. Around half of these emissions have been absorbed by ‘carbon sinks’ such as oceans and terrestrial biosphere.

However, WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud claims that these carbon sinks are beginning to reach their absorption capacity: “Until now, carbon sinks have absorbed nearly half of the carbon dioxide humans emitted in the atmosphere, but this will not necessarily continue in the future. We have already seen that the oceans are becoming more acidic as a result of the carbon dioxide uptake, with potential repercussions for the underwater food chain and coral reefs. There are many additional interactions between greenhouse gases, Earth’s biosphere and oceans, and we need to boost our monitoring capability and scientific knowledge in order to better understand these.”

The bulletin also found that the current high level of carbon emissions is leading to an unprecedented concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that will drastically increase the overall global temperature. Indeed, the bulletin found that a 30 per cent increase in radiative forcing (the warming effect on our climate) was recorded between 1990 and 2011 alone.

The most significant greenhouse gas is CO2, which accounted for 85 per cent of the radiative forcing increase over the last decade. Other problematic greenhouse gases include methane, of which 60 per cent comes from human activities like cattle breeding, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning; and nitrous oxide, 40 per cent of which is produced by anthropogenic sources such as biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes.

EEA Report

The EEA’s report corresponds to the WMO’s findings by confirming temperature increases and foreseeing the drastic impact this will have on our global future. The report predicts more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods and droughts, which have already increased across Europe in recent years causing rising damage costs.

The EEA cites some key environmental consequences of climate change, such as: rising sea levels, raising the risk of coastal flooding; the rapid warming of the Arctic which has seen record sea ice lows over the last five years; the melting of glaciers in the Alps, which have lost two thirds of their volume since the beginning of the industrial era; and the melting of the Greenland ice sheet which has already doubled since the 1990s.

Jacqueline McGlade, EEA Executive Director said: “Climate change is a reality around the world, and the extent and speed of change is becoming ever more evident. This means that every part of the economy, including households, needs to adapt as well as reduce emissions.”

The climate change study goes on to explore widespread changes in plant and animal characteristics, and points to the possibility of many species becoming extinct due to the fact that their migration rates will not be able to keep up with the speed of climate change.

The report also illustrates the part climate change will play in the future transmission of certain diseases, for example those carried by mosquitos and sandflies which will be more able to thrive in a warmer European climate. An increase in heat waves could also lead to more related deaths if societies fail to adapt, the report claims.

Having said this, despite the fact that some agricultural areas in Europe will suffer from droughts, others may increase yield due to lengthening growing season for several European crops. Demand for domestic heating will also be expected to fall in correlation with higher temperatures, which will in turn save energy, and cold-related deaths are expected to decrease in many countries.

World Bank Report

The World Bank released a report on Sunday (18 November) called ‘Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided’,warning against the EEA’s worst-case scenario four-degree global temperature increase. It specifically speaks of the potential consequences for the world’s poorest communities.

The World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim commented: "A 4°C warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2°C. Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. Climate change is one of the single biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest."

The report describes the same future weather extremes as noted in the EEA report, also commenting on the effects of ocean acidification which could actually dissolve coral reefs, leading to profound consequences for those who depend on them for food, income, tourism and shoreline protection.

Whereas the EEA report claims that crop yield could actually increase in certain parts of Europe, the World Bank says that on a global scale, drought-affected areas would rise from 15.4 per cent (its current level) to around 44 per cent by 2100. The most severely affected regions would be southern Africa, the United States, southern Europe and Southeast Asia.

These reports come at a time when the world is approaching a ‘critical’ tipping point in climate change. Despite the fact that greenhouse gas emissions were higher in Europe in 2010 than in 2009 (due to a cold winter across Europe and the economic recovery), the European Environment Agency reported in October that most European countries are ‘individually on track towards their commitments under the Kyoto Protocol’, which aims to reduce overall emissions by eight per cent between 2008 and 2012.

Read the EEA ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012’ report and the WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.